Friday, April 01, 2005

Hain admits Tories wont win....

Labour's campaign to date has been about scaring people with the prospect of a Tory victory. Writing in the guardian on Monday Peter hain inadvertently let it slip that the Tories have no chance of getting back into government.

Hain claimed that voting for anyone other than Labour will let the Tories in. He quotes John Curtice as saying that the effect of defections from Labour could be the Conservatives gaining 71 seats. Lets imagine for one moment that this actually happens. If they pick up 71 seats from Labour then the Tories will probably make a net gain against the Lib dems...perhaps gaining another nine. So stick 80 seats onto the Tories and .....they have all of 250 seats......still a massive 80(ish) short of a majority. Assuming Labour lose another dozen to the Lib dems ourselves and the SNP Labour would be in a minority government.

Labour losses on this scale would spell the end of Tony Blair and leave Labour dependent in the House of Commons, not on the increasingly right wing Liberal Democrats but on a block of Plaid/SNP MPs. Given that Plaid/SNP policies are directly in line with mainstream Labour MPs on most issues. Thats a result many would be happy with.

The same day he was writing in the guardian Peter Hain was in North Wales frightening people with the prospects of a Tory government. The truth is this election is a golden opportunity for the "left" and all who care about public services, civil liberties, the environment and internationalism to have a free hit on the government and vote for people who put these concerns at the top of their agenda. Peter Hain, in acknowledging the Tories wont win, has given the green light to former Labour supporters to cast their votes elsewhere, safe in the knowledge the Tories will not be back in government any time soon.